2023 Outlook: Coming out of year of Black Swans, semiconductor industry likely to be less volatile in 2023

2022 has been a year of Black Swans. The unforeseen events that disrupted the supply chains this year included the Russia-Ukraine war, China pandemic lockdowns, and the US announcing new export control rules on October 7. Just the Russia-Ukraine war alone is estimated to cost the world US$2.8 trillion in lost output by the end of 2023, according to OECD.

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Chinese suppliers actively seeking second wind as they lose orders from Apple

Chinese smart device manufacturer GoerTek recently joined the likes of OFilm, AAC Technologies, and Lens Technology to become the latest Chinese supplier removed from Apple’s supply chain. This wave of exodus has resulted in these suppliers actively expanding their business and clients as they can no longer rely on Apple as the sole source of orders.

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TSMC caught in geopolitical shackles for overseas capacity expansions

TSMC reportedly has plans to build a 3nm fab in the US, adjacent to its 5nm fab under construction in Arizona, and also plans to set up a fab in Germany focusing on 28 nm automotive chips to serve local clients, apparently indicating that the foundry can hardly withstand the pressure from the developed countries seeking to boost domestic chip manufacturing capability, according to industry observers.

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What can Shang-Yi Chiang bring to Foxconn?

With Foxconn’s latest announcement to invite Shang-Yi Chiang, TSMC veteran and former SMIC executive, as the chief strategy officer of its semiconductor group, some in the industry perceive the decision more driven by Foxconn’s need for brand recognition, network expansion and overall strategic guidance, rather than the need for a technological upgrade, especially when there remains a significant gap between TSMC and Foxconn that can be hard to address in the short term.

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