China’s slowdown, marked by weak consumption, a deep property slump, deflationary pressure, and softer investment, is weighing on steel production. The IMF expects GDP growth to ease to 4.8% in 2025 and 4.2% in 2026. With domestic ore mining falling, steelmakers are turning to cheaper imported low-grade ore that requires higher volumes to produce equivalent output. Taiwanese dry-bulk carriers say this substitution is lifting tonne-mile demand.

China’s dominance of the global polysilicon market is forcing the industry into two divergent paths: domestic consolidation to manage a swelling glut, and US-backed overseas production to diversify supply chains. The trend highlights a deepening geopolitical divide over a material essential to both solar manufacturing and high-purity semiconductor applications.